SCIENCE IN THE NEWS DAILY
Promises, Promises
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... At its most enthusiastic, science has always been prone to promise rather more, and sooner, than it has managed to deliver. It can sometimes feel as if cures for diseases are forever 10 years off, while nuclear fusion seems to have been 50 years away from practical reality for about half a century now.
... Meanwhile, in bleaker moments, scientific authorities have predicted the end of the world and civilization as we know them at the hand of pandemics or environmental catastrophe. And yet we are still here ...
Of course, scientists have a strong incentive to make bold predictions--namely, to obtain funding, influence, and high-profile publications. But while few will be disappointed when worst-case forecasts fail to materialize, unfulfilled predictions--of which we're seeing more and more--can be a blow for patients, policy makers, and for the reputation of science itself.
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