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Thanks to High-Tech, Storm Track Easier to Predict
from the San Diego Union-Tribune (Registration Required)
WASHINGTON (Associated Press) -- Sophisticated computer models that replaced instinct with cold, hard math have helped forecasters predict where a storm like Hurricane Earl is going about twice as accurately as 20 years ago.
And last year, they proved it: The three-day forecast was as accurate as the here-it-comes, one-day warning used to be in the 1980s. In the 2009 hurricane season, the one-day forecast predicting where a storm would hit was off by only 53 miles on average.
But Earl is the type of storm--big and in a tricky location--that can defy expectations. Its predicted track shows the eye passing just off the East Coast, dancing so close to shore that a slight wobble could turn that miss into a mess. Even if the eye remains offshore, high winds that extend 200 miles from the center could reach inland.
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