First Links in the Markov Chain
Probability and poetry were unlikely partners in the creation of a computational tool
The Drivel Generator
For Markov, extending the law of large numbers to interdependent samples was the main point of his inquiry. He bequeathed us a proof that a Markov chain must eventually settle down to some definite, stable configuration corresponding to the long-term average behavior of the system.
In the 100 years since 1913, Markov chains have become a major mathematical industry, but the emphasis has shifted away from the questions that most interested Markov himself. In a practical computational setting, it’s not enough to know that a system will eventually converge to a stable value; one needs to know how long it will take. With the recent vogue for huge Markov systems, even estimating the convergence time is impractical; the best that can be expected is an estimate of the error introduced by prematurely terminating a simulation process.
I conclude this essay with a more personal story about my own introduction to Markov chains. In 1983 I wrote a “Computer Recreations” column for Scientific American subtitled “A progress report on the fine art of turning literature into drivel.” I was exploring algorithms that exploit the statistical structure of language to generate random text in the manner of a particular author. (Some specimens based on Eugene Onegin appear in the illustration above.)
One version of the drivel algorithm builds a transition matrix whose rows are labeled by sequences of k letters and whose columns define the probabilities of various letters that can follow each k-character sequence. Given an initial k-letter seed sequence, the program uses the matrix and a random number generator to choose the next character of the synthesized text. Then the leftmost letter of the seed is dropped, the newly chosen character is appended to the right side, and the whole procedure repeats. For values of k larger than 2 or 3 the matrix becomes impractically large, but there are tricks for solving this problem (one of which eliminates the matrix altogether).
Shortly after my article appeared, I met Sergei Kapitsa, the son of Nobel laureate Pyotr Kapitsa and the editor of the Russian-language edition of Scientific American. Kapitsa told me that my algorithms for generating random text all derived from the work of A. A. Markov, decades earlier. I expressed a certain skepticism: Maybe Markov invented the underlying mathematics, but did he apply those ideas to linguistic processes? Then Kapitsa told me about Markov’s Onegin paper.
In a later issue of the magazine I published a contrite addendum about Markov. I had to write it without ever having read a word of Markov’s work, and I went overboard a little, saying that Markov “asks to what extent Pushkin’s poem remains Pushkin’s when the letters are scrambled.” Thirty years later, I hope this column will restore the balance. Sadly, though, I am too late to share it with Kapitsa. He died last summer at age 84.
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