FROM THE PRESIDENT
World Science, Mexico and Sigma Xi
Is the United States losing its world leadership in science and
engineering? During the years 1993-1997, U.S. authors' publications
amounted to 37.46 percent of the world total of research output; in
1997-2001, they represented 34.86 percent. The relative
"impact" of U.S. publications has decreased
proportionally. The U.S. share of the world's citations was 52.3
percent in 1993-1997, 49.43 percent in 1997-2001. Within the top 1
percent of highly cited publications, the U.S. percentage was 65.6
in 1993-1997, but 62.76 in 1997-2001. These data, presented in David
A. King's 2004 article, "The Scientific Impact of
Nations," Nature 430:311-316, were based on analysis
of the Thomson ISI (formerly the Institute for Scientific
Information) index of 8,000 journals published in 36 languages.
The numbers cited do not reflect a reduction in the number of U.S.
publications (which increased from 1,248,733 to 1,265,808 between
the two quinquennia) or in the impact of those highly cited (whose
numbers increased from 22,710 to 23,723). The shrinking U.S. share
is owed, rather, to increases achieved by other countries, notably
the European Union. The number of publications (and percentage of
the world's total) from EU15 countries—the 15 countries of the
European Union before the 2004 accession—increased from
1,180,730 (35.42 percent) to 1,347,985 (37.12 percent) between the
two quinquennia; the proportion of citations increased from 36.57 to
39.3 percent, and the proportion of publications among the 1 percent
most cited increased from 32.85 to 37.3 percent. Japan's share of
publications and citations increased proportionally between
quinquennia about as much. Among other countries, proportional
increases occurred in Brazil, China and India. China's proportion of
the world's publications increased from 2.06 to 3.18 percent and
citations from 0.95 to 1.56. These numbers' implied message is
clear. The scientific productivity and impact of the United States
are not keeping pace with the rest of the world's. It is a sobering
situation, even if not yet an alarming one.
Among our immediate neighbors, Canada has experienced decreases
proportionally similar to those of the U.S., declining from 5.05 to
4.58 percent of the world's publications and from 5.59 to 5.3
percent of the world's citations between 1993-1997 and 1997-2001.
The numbers for Mexico are difficult to fathom and even more
difficult to interpret, because a large proportion of high-impact
publications by Mexican scientists are with U.S. co-authors. But
various signs point toward substantial amelioration of Mexico's
science enterprise in recent years. Among the 348 foreign members of
the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, seven are from Mexico, more
than from Brazil, China or India, which have much larger
populations. Only ten countries in the world have more NAS foreign
members than Mexico. Three of the Mexican scientists were elected in
the last two years.
In November 2003, during Sigma Xi's Annual Meeting, officers of our
Society met with leaders of Mexico's science establishment,
including Jaime Parada Avila, the director of Consejo Nacional de
Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT). The decision was taken to
expand the number of Sigma Xi chapters in Mexico from only one
currently in existence (in Monterrey) to ten. In response to an
invitation letter from Sigma Xi's president, nearly two hundred
Mexican scientists have applied for membership and been elected
members in recent months. Leaders for various chapters have been
identified, and petitions for the formation of new chapters are
being prepared. It behooves all Sigma Xi members to invite their
Mexican scientific collaborators to join our Society. Sigma Xi's
officers, including myself, would appreciate this cooperation and
any recommendations for this important step in enhancing the
international significance of our Society.