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Ecological Responses to Climate Change on the Antarctic Peninsula

The peninsula is an icy world that's warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, threatening a rich but delicate biological community

James McClintock, Hugh Ducklow, William Fraser

Ice, Krill and Penguins

Figure%2011.%20Flooding%20of%20nestsClick to Enlarge Image Much remains to be understood about the food web that culminates with penguins and other avian and mammalian predators. Some two decades ago, the prevailing model for the dynamics of these populations was the "krill surplus hypothesis." According to this view, krill populations had long been held in check by baleen whales, but when those whales were nearly exterminated in the 20th century, krill were released from predation; the ensuing surplus led to significant population growth in other krill-dependent predators. This explanation no longer seems fully adequate. Although krill are indeed a key component of the food web and critical to the diets of many top predators, the surplus hypothesis cannot explain the population trends in brush-tailed penguins, for example. Because all three species have diets dominated by krill, a surplus would be expected to produce similar trends in all of them.

An analogous situation has been observed among seals. Like Adélie penguins, Weddell seals are ice-­dependent, and their populations have plummeted, while the populations of ice-avoiding fur and elephant seals have increased significantly. Of the three species, only fur seals are krill-­dependent. An obvious inference is that sea ice, rather than diet, is the dominant factor governing the animals' response to climate change.

In the years since the krill-surplus hypothesis was first put forward and then challenged by the ice-reduction hypothesis, we have learned that krill themselves are an ice-dependent species. Without sea ice, krill do not reproduce successfully because the larvae need to graze on phytoplankton on the underside of the ice to survive winter. Along the northern half of the western Antarctic Peninsula, and in much of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, there is no krill surplus; on the contrary, this area has experienced an 80 percent decrease in krill abundance over the past 30 years, attributed to loss of winter sea ice.

Theories of top-predator population dynamics are necessarily shifting to take into account changes in both krill abundance and winter ice cover. Sea ice is increasingly regarded as the variable that mediates food-web interactions. The extent of the ice has a direct impact on krill reproductive success and abundance. Then the presence or absence of ice determines which predators are best able to reach the prey populations. This double effect of sea ice may explain why some krill-dependent but ice-avoiding predators, such as gentoo penguins, have continued to increase even as krill abundance has decreased.

Our collective observations, spanning microbiota to megafauna and encompassing the many complex relationships between taxa, paint a picture of the Antarctic Peninsula as an environment undergoing unprecedented ecological shifts in response to climate change. We would not claim to fully understand all the mechanisms driving the patterns we have observed; we are acutely aware that much more research is needed. But we have learned enough to conclude that this unique ecosystem is in peril. We sound an urgent call to mitigate all the factors under human control that are contributing to global climate change.


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