FEATURE ARTICLE
Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Tests and Cancer Risks
Exposures 50 years ago still have health implications today that will continue into the future
Steven Simon, André Bouville, Charles Land
Fallout and Radiological Terrorism
Concern about the possible use of radioactive materials by
terrorists has been heightened following the attacks on the World
Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, and other acts
elsewhere in the world. Conventional attacks, including use of a
dirty bomb—that is, a conventional explosive
coupled with radioactive material—seem more likely (because
they are easier to carry out) than a fission event, but it is still
useful to ask ourselves "What lessons from our research on
fallout are applicable to events of radiological terrorism?"
The potential for health damage downwind of a terrorist event
involving any degree of fission will be dominated by exposure to
early highly radioactive fallout.
Accurately projecting fallout patterns requires knowledge of the
location and altitude at which the device is exploded, and the local
meteorology—particularly a three-dimensional characterization
of the wind field in the vicinity of the explosion. Logistics would
likely lead a terrorist organization to explode a small-scale,
fission-type nuclear device at ground level. According to the
National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, an
explosive yield of only 0.01 kiloton would cause more physical
damage than the explosion that destroyed the Oklahoma City Federal
Building in 1995. Persons within 250 meters of a 0.01-kiloton
nuclear detonation would receive whole-body doses of 4 Gy from the
initial radiation, resulting in the mortality of almost half of
those exposed. The same dose would be received within one hour from
exposure to fallout by those who remained within 1.3 kilometers of
the detonation.
Acute life-threatening effects would dominate treatment efforts
within the initial weeks of a terrorist event. Later, increase
levels of chronic disease, including cancer, would be expected to
contribute to radiation-related mortality and morbidity among
survivors, including those with lesser exposures. Among all persons
in the U.S. and most other developed countries, cancer causes about
1 in 4 deaths. The total additional cancer risk from exposure to
radioactive fallout is relatively small, although follow-up of the
Japanese atomic bomb survivors has shown that elevated cancer risks
continue throughout the remainder of life.
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