I think a way to answer Bruce Sampsell's question might be to run a simulation with the choice being made after the host has opened the door, and show that that agrees with his prediction. Thus you show why his intuition is correct, and also why his intuition is wrong (depending on whether one's first choice is made before or after the host opens the door). I find it necessary to satisfy my intuition - if I can't show why it is wrong, how do I my "right" answer is right?
posted by Andrew Tan
August 28, 2008
"Penguins are 10 times older than humans and have been here for a very, very long time," said Daniel Ksepka, Ph.D., a North Carolina State University research assistant professor. Dr. Ksepka researches the evolution of penguins and how they came to inhabit the African continent.
Because penguins have been around for over 60 million years, their fossil record is extensive. Fossils that Dr. Ksepka and his colleagues have discovered provide clues about migration patterns and the diversity of penguin species.
to view all of our Pizza Lunch Podcasts!
A free daily summary of the latest news in scientific research. Each story is summarized concisely and linked directly to the original source for further reading.
An early peek at each new issue, with descriptions of feature articles, columns,
and more. Every other issue contains links to everything in the latest issue's table of contents.
News of book reviews published in
and around the web, as well as other noteworthy happenings in the world of science books.
To sign up for automatic emails of the
Update and Scientists' Nightstand issues, create an
online profile, then sign up in the
My AmSci area.