For at least the past four centuries, indigenous potato
farmers of the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes have gathered in
midwinter to gaze up into the night sky and observe the
Pleiades. If this star cluster appears big and bright to them,
they think that they will have plentiful rains and big harvests
the next summer; if the cluster appears small and dim, they
anticipate less abundance. Their belief is so strong that they
time the planting of their crops accordingly. One might imagine
that this practice amounts to nothing more than an odd
superstition, but it turns out that this scheme actually works:
The apparent size and brightness of the Pleiades varies with the
amount of thin, high cloud at the top of the troposphere, which
in turn reflects the severity of El Niño conditions over
the Pacific. Because rainfall in this region is generally sparse
in El Niño years, this simple method provides a valuable
forecast, one that is as good or better than any long-term
prediction based on computer modeling of the ocean and
atmosphere.