Many people who are perfectly relaxed cruising our nation's
highways become jittery when they get on an
airliner—although most know full well that flying is safer
than driving. The statistics are indeed clear on this point. For
example, we and a colleague, Dan Weintraub, published a paper in
1991 that documented the substantially lower risk of flying
compared with driving in the United States. Some of the many
millions of Americans who flew over the next few years probably
derived comfort from such hard facts. But now, a decade later,
things have changed: The hijacking of four large jets on
September 11, 2001, and the disastrous events that ensued led
many to forgo flying in the United States during the following
months. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2001, there was a
drop of 18 percent in the number of passengers compared with the
same time period in 2000. Many still avoid air travel. We thus
thought it appropriate to again calculate the risks involved in
flying and driving, taking into account the latest statistics,
including the tragic deaths of the passengers on those four
hijacked planes.